Decision-making after the product-service shift and some implications for ergonomics

This paper introduces a Decision-Making System Framework developed during research in a UK (EPSRC) funded Grand Challenge, entitled ‘Knowledge and Information Management – through life’ (KIM). The development of the framework is outlined, along with a brief outline of the validation work.. The future use of the framework will be discussed, with reminders that the goal of this framework is not to provide the ‘right’ answer, which is improbable, if not impossible, to predict when dealing with such extended and complex system

Evaluating the effects of culture on military operations

Evaluating the effects of culture on military operation

Decision-making systems and the product-to-service shift

Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is first, to provide input to the “through life knowledge and information management” grand challenge and second to provide industry with a tool for assessing the quality of the process(es) by which decisions are reached. Design/methodology/approach – An iterative approach is used with two student-based case studies, followed by two research institution case studies, and then two industrial case studies. Validation of the tool by managers is undertaken in another case study. Findings – An analytic framework is created which allows managers to categorise and display the characteristics of their decision processes. By assessing the resulting voids and clusters within the framework, the efficacy of the process can be determined. The framework has an associated management process, first to enable managers to see and compare instances of other situations, especially those leading to “disaster”, and second to upgrade the tool itself as assessments are undertaken. Research limitations/implications – The tool has been developed in a UK manufacturing environment. It has demonstrated its usefulness in the defence industry, but its wider applicability is not yet known. It requires industrialization to make it usable by managers. Practical implications – Use of the tool has already led to significant changes to the capability development process in a major defence company, and has been used by a board in a civilian company to understand why they have cost overruns and delivery problems. Originality/value – The paper has not discovered another, simple-to-use tool for the same purpose

Evaluating the cultural aspects of complex systems

As technologies improve, system components are becoming more reliable and are delivering higher performance levels. However, most complex systems incorporate humans, and human performance issues are becoming relatively more important. In particular, individuals' and groups' cultures are increasingly recognized as major performance-affecting factors. In civilian aircraft systems, companies such as Boeing are finding that culture is now the key differentiating factor in aviation safety. A similar situation appears to exist across ostensibly similar military air forces. Accident rates vary greatly across cultures, even when comparing near-identical modern aircraft fleets. This paper examines the background to cultural issues; it presents a brief description of culture and cultural factors and, as an illustrative example, describes the effects of cultural variation on performance in aviation. It examines cultural bias in systems engineering standards, and comments on the lack of culture-sensitive systems engineering tools. The paper also describes a culture-based modeling tool that has been developed by the authors to evaluate the cultural match of individuals and groups to particular environments and, potentially, to complex systems. It concludes that human error and culture are closely linked and that culture must be formally considered in the systems engineering of complex systems

Models and metaphors: complexity theory and through-life management in the built environment

Complexity thinking may have both modelling and metaphorical applications in the through-life management of the built environment. These two distinct approaches are examined and compared. In the first instance, some of the sources of complexity in the design, construction and maintenance of the built environment are identified. The metaphorical use of complexity in management thinking and its application in the built environment are briefly examined. This is followed by an exploration of modelling techniques relevant to built environment concerns. Non-linear and complex mathematical techniques such as fuzzy logic, cellular automata and attractors, may be applicable to their analysis. Existing software tools are identified and examples of successful built environment applications of complexity modelling are given. Some issues that arise include the definition of phenomena in a mathematically usable way, the functionality of available software and the possibility of going beyond representational modelling. Further questions arising from the application of complexity thinking are discussed, including the possibilities for confusion that arise from the use of metaphor. The metaphor of a 'commentary machine' is suggested as a possible way forward and it is suggested that an appropriate linguistic analysis can in certain situations reduce perceived complexity

Models and metaphors: some applications of complexity theory for design, construction and property management

Complexity thinking may have both modelling and metaphorical applications in the design, construction and servicing of the built environment. In production theory, queuing and variation have been central in generating improvement initiatives. The complexity of these phenomena in construction suggests that non-linear and complex mathematical techniques such as fuzzy logic, cellular automata and attractors, may be applicable to their analysis. Some issues are: the definition of phenomena in a mathematically usable way; the functionality of available software; the possibility of going beyond representational modelling. Much work in management studies, rather than employing mathematical techniques, draws metaphorically on insights into complexity. Metaphor may enlighten or confuse. Is metaphorical application of complexity ideas simply a first step towards the application of mathematical techniques, or does the mathematical insight contribute to the development of a non-mathematical mode of thought? The metaphor of a 'commentary machine' is suggested as a possible way forward